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The impact of the global uncertainties emanating from the tariff war have already been factored in in the revised growth forecast, and it would be very difficult to predict the likely impact now, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said at the post Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting press conference on Wednesday.

When asked by The Hindu for his comment on U.S. President Donald Trump’s remark that India’s is a dead economy, he said India is doing better than the U.S. “I am not the right person to react to the President. But yes, you are all aware that we have a very robust growth rate of 6.5%. And in fact, as per IMF, it is 6.4% and 3% growth rate of the world if you look at,” Mr. Malhotra said.

“We are contributing about 18% which is more than the U.S., whose contribution would be much lesser, I think 11% or some. So, we are doing very well and we will continue for further improvement,” he added.

He said the RBI would maintain a close vigil on the incoming data and take appropriate measures as per need. “On the growth, we have already reduced our forecast which was earlier at 6.7% to 6.5%. Some of the global uncertainties have already been factored in. However, there are still lot of uncertainties. It is very difficult to predict as to what the impact would be going forward,” he said.

“We will maintain a close vigil on the incoming data and take a call. As of now we do not have sufficient data to revise our GDP forecast,” he added.

He said amid the uncertainties, the RBI had already reduced repo rate by 100 basis points and the policy transmission was happening. On whether external factors like the tariff war would have any impact on inflation, the RBI Governor answered in the negative.

“We are less dependant on outside so far inflation is concerned. We do not see any major impact unless we have retaliatory tariff,” he pointed out.

Since the U.S. is forcing India to stop buying crude oil from Russia and in the likely event of India stopping it, there would be no impact on inflation despite crude oil is having significant bearing on it, he said.

On whether India should be worried about the tariffs and external pressure, he said India has sufficient forex reserves to meet 11 months of merchandise imports and “we are confident of meeting any external shocks.” He clarified that UPI users will not have to pay for the transaction to banks as reported in some sections as the government is subsidising the cost of transaction to promote digital payments in the country.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday (August 6, 2025) slapped an additional 25% tariff on goods coming from India as penalty for New Delhi’s continued buying of Russian oil.

Mr. Trump signed an executive order imposing the additional tariff less than 14 hours before his initial tariffs were to come into effect.

Also Read | I never said a percentage: Trump on increasing tariffs on countries buying Russian energy

After the order, the total tariff on Indian goods, barring a small exemption list, will be 50%.

While the initial duty becomes effective on August 7, the additional levy will come into effect after 21 days.

The move comes after Mr. Trump on Tuesday (August 5, 2025) said India has not been a good trading partner and warned of raising the tariffs “very substantially” over the next 24 hours over India’s purchase of Russian oil.

“With India, what people don’t like to say about India, they’re the highest tariff nation. They have the highest tariff of anybody. We do very, very little business with India because their tariffs are so high,” Mr. Trump said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box.

“India has not been a good trading partner, because they do a lot of business with us, but we don’t do business with them. So we settled on 25% (tariff), but I think I’m going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours, because they’re buying Russian oil. They’re fuelling the war machine. And if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy,” he added.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday voted to maintain the policy repo rate at 5.50% and continue with its neutral stance after assessing the current and evolving macroeconomic situation.

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) remains unchanged at 5.25% and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate at 5.75%.

This decision is towards achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

The MPC took note that the global environment continues to be challenging. Although financial market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties have abated somewhat from their peaks in recent months, trade negotiation challenges continue to linger.

Global growth, though revised upwards by the IMF, remains muted. The pace of disinflation is slowing down, with some advanced economies even witnessing an uptick in inflation, it noted.

In this backdrop, the domestic growth remains resilient and is broadly evolving along the lines of our assessment, it stated. However, the prospects of external demand remain uncertain amid ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations. The headwinds emanating from prolonged geopolitical tensions, persisting global uncertainties, and volatility in global financial markets pose risks to the growth outlook, it observed.

Taking various factors into account, the projection for real GDP growth for 2025-26 has been retained at 6.5%, with Q1 at 6.5%, Q2 at 6.7%, Q3 at 6.6% , and Q4 at 6.3%.

Real GDP growth for Q1:2026-27 is projected at 6.6%. The risks are evenly balanced.

Stating that CPI headline inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month to a 77-month low of 2.1% (y-o-y) in June 2025, the MPC observed that this was driven primarily by a sharp decline in food inflation led by improved agricultural activity and various supply side measures.

However, core inflation, which remained within a narrow range of 4.1-4.2% during February-May, increased to 4.4% in June, driven partly by a continued increase in gold prices, it stated adding that the inflation outlook for 2025-26 had become more benign than expected in June.

Considering various factors, CPI inflation for 2025-26 has been projected at 3.1% [as compared with 3.7% previously] with Q2 at 2.1%; Q3 at 3.1% ; and Q4 at 4.4% . CPI inflation for Q1:2026-27 is projected at 4.9%. The risks are evenly balanced.

“Despite a challenging external environment, the Indian economy is navigating a steady growth path with price stability,” RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in his Monetary Policy statement.

“Monetary policy has appropriately used the policy space created by the benign inflation outlook to support growth without compromising on the primary objective of price stability. Transmission of our recent policy actions to the broader economy is underway,” he said.

“As the Indian economy strives to attain its rightful place in the global economy, stronger policy frameworks across domains, and not just limited to monetary policy, will be pivotal in its journey,” he stated.

“We, on our part, will continue to be agile and proactive in providing a facilitative monetary policy based on incoming data and the evolution of the growth-inflation dynamics. As always, we will have a clear, consistent and credible communication backed by actions necessary for the task at hand,” he concluded.

The rupee recovered from record low level and closed 15 paise higher at 87.73 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (August 6, 2025), supported by a volatile greenback and the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rate steady.

However, increasing crude oil prices, negative domestic equity markets, and uncertainties around the U.S. tariff on India restricted gains in the local unit, according to forex traders.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 87.72 and moved in a range of 87.63-87.80 during the day before settling at 87.73 (provisional), up 15 paise from its previous close.

The rupee revisited its lowest-ever intra-day level and ended with a loss of 22 paise at 87.88 against the US dollar on Tuesday.

After three successive interest rate cuts, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 5.5% and retained the neutral stance, amid concerns over tariff uncertainties.

Announcing the third bi-monthly monetary policy of the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the growth rate projection for FY26 has been retained at 6.5 per cent.

“The rupee was in the narrow range with RBI protecting one end and FPIs buying for their dollar outflows, along with oil companies, before the due date of US secondary sanctions on Russia day after tomorrow [Friday],” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“We wait for the penal tariffs US applies on India for purchasing oil from Russia as the rupee traverses through a narrow path today with something positive in the mind. For tomorrow, we expect rupee in the range of 87.25/88.00,” he said.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices rose 1.45% to $68.62 per barrel in futures trade.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up marginally 0.01% to 98.79 after falling overnight.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 166.26 points to settle at 80,543.99, while the Nifty went down 75.35 points to close at 24,574.20.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹22.48 crore on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

Benchmark BSE Sensex reversed its early gains to close lower by 160 points on Wednesday (August 6, 2025) due to selling in IT and healthcare shares amid the RBI policy decision to keep the key interest rates unchanged.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 166.26 points or 0.21 per cent to settle at 80,543.99 with 18 of its constituents ending lower and 12 with gains. During the day, it declined 261.43 points or 0.32 per cent to hit a low of 80,448.82.

The 50-share NSE Nifty dipped 75.35 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 24,574.20. In the intraday session, the index decreased 110.35 points or 0.44 per cent to hit a low of 24,539.20.

Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards.

Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.

“Despite renewed trade tensions — stemming from the U.S. — the domestic market remained resilient, holding firm near the key support level of 24,500. The pharma sector underperformed, emerging as a notable casualty of the tariff warnings,” Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy interest rate unchanged on Wednesday (August 6, 2025), as policymakers weighed the risks posed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and the uncertainties surrounding the potential for higher tariffs.

The RBI also retained the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year at 6.5 per cent while lowering the inflation forecast to 3.1 per cent from 3.7 per cent.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite index, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed in the positive territory, while South Korea’s Kospi settled on a flat note.

The European markets are trading in the green territory. The U.S. markets ended lower on Tuesday.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude rose 1.61 per cent to $68.73 a barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹22.48 crore while Domestic Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹3,840.39 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. Sensex fell by 308.47 points to close at 80,710.25 and Nifty dipped 73.20 points to 24,649.55 on Tuesday.

The rupee rose 15 paise to 87.73 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (August 6, 2025) amid a weakening greenback as markets awaited the outcome of the Reserve Bank’s MPC meet.

However, a rise in global Brent crude prices and FII outflows capped further gains in the local unit, forex traders said, adding that markets continued to wait for the outcome on the U.S. tariffs.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 87.72 against the U.S. dollar before dipping marginally to 87.73, registering a rise of 15 paise from its previous close.

The rupee revisited its all-time low level and ended with a loss of 22 paise at 87.88 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday (August 5, 2025), as risk-off sentiment deepened after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats to raise tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra-headed rate-setting panel, which started the three-day deliberations to decide the next bi-monthly monetary policy on Monday (August 4, 2025), is scheduled to announce the policy rate on Wednesday (August 6, 2025).

“The rupee which made a closing low on Tuesday (August 5, 2025) was well protected by RBI… and we wait to watch how long RBI protects it as Mr. Trump clamours to put additional tariffs on India today as no solution has emerged between the two countries,” Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

“If no solution emerges between the two countries in buying Russian oil, then the tariffs will come. Till then, we may expect the rupee to remain range-bound with RBI protecting 88 and FPIs continuing to buy dollars,” he said.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices rose 0.62% to $68.06 per barrel in futures trade.

“Russian Crude buyer sanctions continued to remain in focus. The U.S. may hit all such buyers like India and China with tariffs as he continued his threat on Tuesday (August 5, 2025). If China and India stop their purchases of Russian oil, it will tighten global supplies, and this notion has offered oil some support,” Bhansali added.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.07% to 98.71.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 113.41 points to 80,823.66 in early trade, while Nifty was up 19.20 points to 24,668.75.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹22.48 crore on a net basis on Tuesday (August 5, 2025), according to exchange data. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹22.48 crore on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains and were trading lower on Wednesday (August 6, 2025) amid caution ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision and unabated foreign fund outflows.

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 124.18 points or 0.15 per cent to 80,834.43 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up by 21.85 points to 24,671.40.

Later, both the benchmark indices gave up early gains and were quoting lower. The BSE benchmark traded 82.53 points lower at 80,627.72, and the NSE Nifty quoted 29 points down at 24,620.55.

Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.

Trent, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Maruti, UltraTech Cement, Asian Paints, BEL, and State Bank of India were among the gainers.

On Tuesday (August 5), the U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats to raise tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra-headed rate-setting panel, which started the three-day deliberations to decide the next bi-monthly monetary policy on Monday, is scheduled to announce the policy rateon Wednesday (August 6, 2025).

“President Trump’s rhetoric and actions will continue to weigh on markets in the near-term. India’s response to the rhetoric and actions, so far, has been subdued and, of late, strong and measured. India is unlikely to concede to the unjustifiable and unreasonable demands of the U.S. administration.

“This means there will be short-term pains for the economy in terms of lower exports and a marginal hit to our GDP growth in FY26, with the GDP growth declining to around 6.2 per cent from 6.5 per cent estimated earlier. Corporate earnings may also take a minor hit,” V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said.

This means short-term pains for the market, particularly since the high valuations provide room for correction. The monetary policy decision on Wednesday is unlikely to influence the market significantly. The overarching influence on the market will be Trump’s tantrums, Mr. Vijayakumar added.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Shanghai’s SSE Composite index were trading in the positive territory while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi were quoting lower.

The U.S. markets ended lower in overnight deals on Tuesday.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude rose 0.64 per cent to ₹68.07 a barrel.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹22.48 crore while Domestic Institutional Investors purchased equities worth ₹3,840.39 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

On Tuesday, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell by 308.47 points to close at 80,710.25. The broader NSE Nifty dipped 73.20 points to close at 24,649.55.

State Bank of India (SBI) said it would begin hiring of Junior Associates (Customer Service & Support) for 5,583 vacant positions across the country. 

The online registration window for applications will be open from August 6, 2025 to August 26, 2025. This fresh recruitment comes on the back of the bank’s hiring of 505 Probationary Officers and 13,455 Junior Associates in the previous months with SBI aiming to further deepen and enhance its process and service delivery across India.

“As part of this nationwide hiring effort, opportunities will be available across SBI’s vast network of branches and offices, offering the aspirants a chance to begin their career with a dynamic and growth-driven institution,” SBI said. 

SBI Chairman, CS Setty, said the onboarding the new talent pool is central to the bank’s aim of strengthening its human resource capabilities by implementing structured skill development programmes aligned with evolving functional and technological requirements.

The bank employs over 2.36 lakh employees.