Business

Domestic economic conditions are supportive to the rupee and this may lead to the  domestic currency trading between ₹85.5 to ₹87.5 a dollar in fiscal 2026, according to a research note by Bank of Baroda.

Improved growth prospects, slowing inflation and stable external deficits will benefit the rupee.

The risks from the U.S. tariff actions, however, is not immediately certain, the report said.   The rupee spot price depreciated 2.5%, closing at ₹85.45 a dollar as on March 31, 2025, according to data from Google Finance. The Indian rupee, however, performed better than most currencies as, it was the only currency after British Pound, Brazilian Real and the Euro that had appreciated, in March 2025.

“After some upheaval, markets have largely taken U.S. tariff actions in stride, however, the balance will once again be tested. With the U.S. President’s April 2 deadline looming, markets await more clarity on the extent and scope of U.S. reciprocal tariffs. INR’s fortunes are likely to remain tied to how these global factors play out. On the domestic side, conditions remain favourable for INR, which should lend support to the domestic currency amidst mounting external challenges,” said Aditi Gupta , Economist at Bank of Baroda Research.  “There will be sporadic exogenous shocks, which are likely to be managed by the RBI through timely intervention,” Ms. Gupta added.

Apple plans to expand India-based output to 25% by 2028, up from 14% in FY24, said a report put out by Capgemini Research Institute on Wednesday.

Indian manufacturing facilities produced 14% of Apple’s total iPhone output in FY24, making India the largest producer of Apple smartphones outside China, as per the report titled, ‘The Resurgence of manufacturing: Reindustrialisation strategies in Europe and the US.’

‘’Apple plans to expand India-based output to 25% by 2028,’‘ it said.

Broadening the scenario, it said, in recent years, U.S. organisations have been looking at “friendlier” shores such as India, Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia, as possible manufacturing bases.

In Southeast Asia, reindustrialisation investments are expected to increase in Vietnam and India, in areas including electronics manufacturing, energy and metals mining, and industrial manufacturing, as per the Capgemini research.

Offering geography wise data, the report said, some 40% of the surveyed organisations in the U.K. have plans to increase their investment in India over the next three years as part of their reindustrialisation initiatives. Meanwhile, 38% of surveyed enterprises in the U.S and Spain plan to increase their investment in India over the next three years as part of their reindustrialisation initiatives.

According to the surveyed organisations in European countries like France (33%), Germany (39%) and Netherlands (40%) plan to increase their investment in India over the next three years as part of their reindustrialisation initiatives.

Tracking the sectoral focus Gapgemini Research said, some 47% of organisations in the aerospace & defence sector have plans to increase their investment in India over the next three years as part of their reindustrialisation initiatives. Some 33% of organisations in the automotive sector, 39% of organisations in the battery manufacturing/energy storage sector, 35% of organizations in the chemicals sector, 38% of organisations in the consumer product manufacturing sector, 30% of organisations in the energy sector, 45% of firms in the electronics sector , 42% of enterprises in the industrial machinery & equipment sector, 49% of companies in the metals & mining sector, 41% of organisations in the life science sector, 30% of firms in the transportation sector, 33% of companies in the utilities sector and 41% of surveyed organisations in the telecom sector have plans to increase their investment in India over the next three years as part of their reindustrialisation initiatives, as per the report.

The Union Ministry of Railways said on Wednesday that India produced a record 1,681 locomotives across various categories in the financial year 2024-25.

A railways spokesperson stated that this is an increase of 209 locomotives, or 19%, compared to the 1,472 locomotives produced in 2023-24. 

This record-breaking production is the highest ever for locomotive manufacturing in the country. “This surpasses the total locomotive production of regions such as the United States, Europe, South America, Africa, and Australia,” the spokesperson said. 

Between 2004 and 2014, India produced a total of 4,695 locomotives, with a national annual average of 470. In contrast, from 2014 to 2024, locomotive manufacturing witnessed a significant surge, with 9,168 locomotives produced, raising the annual average to approximately 917.

The production was distributed as follows: Chittaranjan Locomotive Works manufactured 700 locomotives, Banaras Locomotive Works produced 477, Patiala Locomotive Works contributed 304 locomotives, and 100 locomotives each were manufactured at the Madhepura and Marhowrah units.

The majority of locomotives produced in the country are intended for freight trains. Among the 1,681 locomotives produced, 1,047 were WAG-9/9H locomotives, seven WAG-9HH locomotives, 148 WAG-9 Twin locomotives, two WAP-5 locomotives, 272 WAP-7 locomotives, five NRC locomotives, 100 WAG-12B locomotives, and 100 WDG 4G/6G locomotives. 

The trade war that US President Donald Trump has escalated in his second term is a challenge for all Asian economies, large and small, in an era when the most populous region of the world is expected to drive global economic growth.

Export manufacturing and free trade helped transform China and other Asian countries into economic powerhouses over the past decades. Trump’s barrages of tariffs, aimed at compelling companies to keep or set up their factories in the United States, are rupturing trade agreements often made at great political cost to trading partners.

The White House says the criteria for raising tariffs will include not just US trade deficits but also various taxes, exchange rates, government subsidies and various non-tariff trade barriers. Apart from the tariffs to be announced on Wednesday’s “Liberation Day”, as Trump calls it, 25% tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts are due to take effect on Thursday.

Trump has also ordered levies against China, Canada and Mexico; expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, and imposed tariffs on countries that import oil from Venezuela. He plans more import taxes on pharmaceutical drugs, lumber, copper and computer chips.

Higher costs already have led many manufacturers to shift away from China to other economies in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America. But for now the prevailing uncertainty over what Trump will do with what he calls “reciprocal” tariffs may lead most to sit tight and see what comes next.

“There’s no script for how reciprocal tariffs get priced, and uncertainty is the only constant,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said.

Here’s a look at how higher US tariffs might affect some major Asian economies.

China: Despite some decrease in trade since Trump launched a trade war with China during his first term in office, the U.S. trade deficit has continued to climb, hitting $295.4 billion last year.

China, the world’s No. 2 economy, has leaned heavily on exports to make up for weak demand at home. The ruling Communist Party has made exports of autos, especially electric vehicles, and batteries a priority, but 27.5% tariffs on auto exports and 102.5% duties on EVs have in effect closed the US market for its automakers. China is the second largest supplier of auto parts to the US behind Mexico.

During Trump’s first term, higher tariffs led leader Xi Jinping to champion a shift to high-tech production. That will likely continue as US pressure intensifies, causing job losses due to changes in manufacturing rather than direct damage from the tariffs themselves, Raymond Yeung of ANZ Research said in a report.

As Trump has rolled out rounds of tariff hikes that have piled on an extra 20%, China has raised its own import duties, targeting US farm goods. It also expanded export controls, especially on strategically important minerals used in high-tech electronics.

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China have fallen since the beginning of the year, and are expected to fall further after Beijing imposed a 15% tariff on US LNG imports.

Japan: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tuesday that his government was making last ditch efforts to get the United States to exclude his country from auto tariffs. The US absorbs about one-fifth of Japan’s exports, or about 1.5 million passenger cars a year.

Even though major Japanese automakers like Toyota Motor Corp, Honda Motor Co, and Nissan Motor Co have factories in the US and increasingly, in Mexico, it’s an important industry back home. Nearly 5.6 million people are employed in auto-related jobs, according to the Japan Automobile Manufacturing Association.

Japan’s exports of electronics, machinery, chemicals and steel are also potential targets. A central bank survey released Monday found business sentiment among large manufacturers worsened in the past quarter, for the first time in a year. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 share benchmark has fallen more than 10% in the past three months, while shares in Toyota Motor Corp have tumbled 27%.

Taiwan: More than 60% of the self-governed island’s economy comes from exports, and it ran a trade surplus with the US of nearly $74 billion last year. Computer chips are one of Taiwan’s biggest exports to the United States, along with computers and other office machines and consumer products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp is expanding its US factories in Arizona, enticed by US incentives and its own strategic needs. In early March, its CEO C C Wei pledged $100 billion in new US investments.

South Korea: South Korea ran a $66 billion trade surplus with the US last year, and autos, electronics and computer chips were a large share. The country could boost investments in making autos, steel, and semiconductors in the US and also consider revising the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement to promote more balanced trade, Patrick Cronin of the Hudson Institute said in a recent report.

South Korea is among several big importers of LNG that may try to buy more of the gas from the US to help balance trade, researchers at RaboBank said in a recent report.

Vietnam: Like most of its Southeast Asian neighbours, Vietnam has emulated Japan, China and other major exporting nations in relying on trade and foreign investment to develop their economies.

It had the third-largest trade surplus with the United States last year, after Mexico and China, at $123.5 billion. Its biggest exports are machinery, textiles and footwear.

A 14% increase in exports helped Vietnam’s economy expand at a sizzling 7.1% annual rate last year. The government recently said it would slash tariffs on LNG, autos, ethanol and some other farm products, moves meant to placate Trump and reduce its trade surplus. Vietnam also has agreed to allow a five-year trial launch of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service.

India: The world’s most populous country ran a trade surplus of nearly $46 billion with the US in 2024, according to the US Trade Representative’s office. The main exports are medicines and chemicals to make them, pearls, diamonds and other gems.

Exports account for just under a quarter of India’s GDP, providing millions of jobs, and the US is its largest overseas market.

The U.S. cities most vulnerable to a trade war with Canada turn out to largely be in the states that helped return Donald Trump to the White House — a sign of the possible political risk he’s taking with his tariff plans.

A new analysis released last week by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce detailed the areas most dependent on exports to Canada, with San Antonio and Detroit topping the list of 41 U.S. metro areas. The findings show that the United States’ 25% tariffs on Canada and Canada’s retaliations could inflict meaningful damage in key states for U.S. politics.

The analysis was conducted before the Republican president announced March 26 that he was placing additional 25% tariffs on imported autos and parts starting on April 3.

April 3 is also when a slate of additional, but unknown tariffs are expected to be announced, what Trump has dubbed “Liberation Day.”

Trump has placed 25% tariffs on many goods from Mexico and Canada, with a lower 10% tax on energy products and potash from Canada. Some of those tariffs have been suspended or delayed, though they’re set to fully hit in April.

Canadian leaders have warned that the United States would suffer in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs and slower growth because of the trade war. But an analysis by the Brookings Institution found that the economic pain would be more severe in Mexico and Canada because those countries are more reliant on the United States in terms of trade.

Trump’s stated reason for the tariffs is to stop illegal immigration and drug smuggling, though he’s also said that he dislikes the trade deficit with both countries and has taunted Canada by suggesting that it could become the 51st U.S. state.

Some metro areas most impacted

Nearly half of what San Antonio exports, with its aerospace, auto and energy sectors, goes to Canada. About 40% of what the auto-driven Detroit area exports also goes to Canada. Trump’s wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were crucial for his overall victory in November’s presidential election — and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh also rank in the top 10 for exposure to a trade war with Canada.

Other cities most dependent on exports to Canada include Kansas City, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; Nashville, Tennessee; Columbus, Ohio; Chicago; and Cleveland. All of those states aside from Illinois backed Trump in the last election.

What began as a strong rally in March is now showing signs of uncertainty. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who played a major role in driving a 6% rally in the Nifty throughout March, have sold off Rs 10,255 crore worth of Indian stocks in recent trading sessions.
The sell-off comes just before US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated Liberation Day tariff announcements.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, notes that while today’s tariff declaration may reduce some uncertainty around reciprocal tariffs, the unpredictability of Trump’s past decisions suggests that the uncertainty could persist well beyond today.
FIIs had turned aggressive buyers toward the end of March, likely driven by end-of-year considerations. Their buying spree triggered short-covering, which contributed to India’s outperformance. However, with the market’s direction shifting, FIIs are now resuming short positions.
According to an ET report, Vijayakumar advises investors to wait for more clarity on tariffs and market trends. If the tariffs are worse than expected, there could be further sell-offs, though domestic consumption-driven sectors are expected to remain resilient in such a scenario.
What’s behind the FII sell-off?
Jahangir Aziz from JPMorgan warns that India may not be spared from reciprocal tariffs. Even if India avoids these, sector-specific tariffs could still be a risk. He highlights two additional concerns: the potential for a global risk-off event and its impact on the dollar. If US equities suffer, history suggests that global markets, including India, will not remain unaffected.
Market expert Sunil Subramaniam views the current volatility as short-term pain with potential for medium-term gain. He believes that much of the price correction is already priced in, in anticipation of bad news. Unless there is a surprise sector-specific tariff, Subramaniam suggests that the worst may already be priced in. He recommends a staggered investment approach over the next six months, advising investors not to try to pick sectors or stocks at this moment—comparing it to “catching a falling knife.”
Opportunity amid the fear
Sudip Bandyopadhyay, Group Chairman of Inditrade Capital, acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the markets. “The April 2 tariff announcement is creating significant psychological pressure. There’s a lot of speculation and mixed signals coming from the US It’s difficult to predict what will happen, which is why many investors are staying light ahead of the event.”
Bandyopadhyay also sees opportunity in the midst of this uncertainty. “There are several strong stocks experiencing corrections due to this unpredictability, making it a great time for building a long-term portfolio. Don’t invest all your funds today, but begin to allocate slowly. Large-cap and mid-cap stocks are trading at more attractive valuations compared to where they might be in September 2024.”
Should you be buying now?
The verdict is still out on whether the current correction is a golden opportunity or the start of further pain. According to the ET report, analysts agree that while near-term uncertainty will persist, investors with a long-term outlook can start deploying capital gradually.
Vijayakumar remains cautiously optimistic, noting that India’s economic fundamentals are still strong. While near-term volatility may be influenced by global factors, domestic demand continues to remain robust.
Bandyopadhyay echoes this sentiment, suggesting that it’s impossible to predict how the global markets or India’s markets will react once the tariffs are announced. “We’ll likely get a clearer picture when the market opens after the announcement. So while uncertainty is high, it’s still a good time to start putting money to work.”
Meanwhile, Aziz points out that India’s real challenge lies not just in tariffs, but in how global monetary policy unfolds. “If there’s a global slowdown or a risk-off event, emerging markets like India will need the ability to respond with rate cuts,” he says.
With FIIs turning net sellers once again, the direction of the market now hinges on Trump’s upcoming tariff decision. Will it be a minor setback or a major blow? Either way, investors should brace for volatility and carefully evaluate their investment strategy.

Rising cyberthreats, contractual requirements as well as regulatory changes are making businesses opt for and renew cyberinsurance policies, an insurance web aggregator’s study findings showed.

Cyberinsurance is no longer perceived as an optional risk-transfer tool but a core component of enterprise risk management. Businesses have come to recognise the recurring and evolving nature of cyber risks. Nearly 100% of cyberinsurance clients are renewing policies, Policybazaar said on the study by its corporate insurance arm PBFB.

Companies with more than Rs. 10 crore turnover are leading the offtake, especially those in BFSI, IT and tech, healthcare and logistics industries besides startups. BFSI and tech sectors lead the list due to their high regulatory and operational risks, while start-ups are increasingly purchasing the cover to meet external requirements.

First-time buyers make up around one-third cyber insurance clients, a pointer to rising market penetration. Premium payout for liability insurance among businesses last fiscal was estimated to be Rs.3,500-Rs.4,000 crore. Of this, cyberinsurance accounted for approximately 20-30%, Policybazaar said.

“The cyberinsurance market has evolved from a niche offering to a business necessity in the last couple of years… with demand fuelled by increasing cyber threats and regulatory compliance. It’s poised for sustained growth, not just among large businesses but also among SMEs and emerging industries,” head of liability insurance at Policybazaar For Business Evaa Saiwal said.

Beyond financial recovery, cyberinsurance is becoming a key enabler of business continuity, ensuring companies can withstand and recover from attacks with minimal disruption. As threats like ransomware, phishing, and data breaches continue to escalate, integrating cyber risk management and insurance will be key to building a resilient and secure digital ecosystem for businesses, she said.

Without mentioning the claim amount, Policybazaar said business interruption from data breaches accounted to 45% of cyberinsurance claims, while social engineering attacks 25%; ransomware incidents 20%; and others 10% made up the rest. Typically financial losses and liabilities arising from cyber incidents, including data breaches, ransomware attacks, business interruption, and related costs like investigations, legal fees and public relations expenses, are covered under cyber insurance. There are two components to the cover — first-party that protects the insured business from direct losses and expenses incurred due to a cyber incident and third-party to protect against liabilities arising from claims made by others.

All four State-owned general insurance companies and around 13-14 private general insurers provide the cover forming part of the liability insurance.

Gold (Representative image)

Gold prices remained flat at their all-time high of Rs 94,150 per 10 grams in the New Delhi on Wednesday, amid growing concerns over the potential imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US, according to the All India Sarafa Association.
On Tuesday, gold surged by Rs 2,000, marking its steepest increase in nearly two months, to reach a new peak of Rs 94,150 per 10 grams, according to news agency PTI.
Gold of 99.5% purity also held steady at Rs 93,700 per 10 grams, its highest-ever level.
Traders attributed the stability in gold prices to anticipation surrounding US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement on reciprocal tariffs for countries, including India, which face a trade deficit with the US.
On the other hand, silver prices fell by Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,01,500 per kg, compared to Tuesday’s closing of Rs 1,02,500 per kg.
Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst for Commodities at HDFC Securities, noted that the looming tariffs could trigger fresh volatility across all financial markets. “Investors will assess how these new tariffs might impact global trade, the economy, and geopolitical relations, reacting accordingly. Uncertain times tend to benefit precious metals,” Gandhi said.
Globally, spot gold rose 0.11% to USD 3,116.86 per ounce, while Comex gold futures for June delivery remained flat at USD 3,149.30 per ounce.
Meanwhile, spot silver saw a 0.52% rise during Asian market hours, reaching USD 33.87 per ounce.
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, stated that market participants are also waiting for the US private jobs report, which could offer more insight into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions.

A traffic signal in the foreground of the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Jeejeebhoy Towers on Dalal Street.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Stock market benchmark indices rebounded in early trade on Wednesday (Aoril 2, 2025) after a sharp decline in the previous session, driven by buying in blue-chip stocks such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex rebounded 256.82 points to 76,281.33 in early trade. The NSE Nifty climbed 84.9 points to 23,250.60.

From the Sensex pack, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Maruti, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Zomato and Adani Ports were among the gainers.

Nestle, UltraTech Cement, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Motors were among the laggards.

In Asian markets, Shanghai and Hong Kong were trading in the positive territory while Seoul and Tokyo quoted lower.

U.S. markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday (April 1, 2025).

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹5,901.63 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were buyers as they bought equities worth ₹4,322.58 crore.

“The element of uncertainty regarding reciprocal tariffs is expected to come down with the tariff declaration today. But considering Trump’s flip flops on tariffs earlier, the uncertainty is likely to continue beyond today,” V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said.

It appears that FIIs turning buyers in the last several trading days of March was triggered by end of year considerations, he said.

“The short-covering which FII buying triggered contributed to India’s outperformance in March. Now with FIIs selling for ₹10,255 crore in the cash market in two days, the shorting has resumed. This was reflected in the 353 point sharp cut in Nifty yesterday,” Mr. Vijayakumar added.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude traded 0.0% up to $74.51 a barrel.

The BSE benchmark tanked 1,390.41 points or 1.80% to settle at 76,024.51 on Tuesday. The Nifty dropped 353.65 points or 1.50% to 23,165.70.